North Africa Outlook 2022
Stephenson Harwood LLP
1 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7SH, UK
North Africa was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly those countries with a large tourism industry and strong service sector. Oil economies also suffered from falling prices as the global downtown trickled into domestic budgets. With access to vaccines, oil prices have recovered and travel has returned, setting the region up for a return to growth in 2022. Egypt, which fared relatively well through 2020 and 2021, is set for the strongest growth at 4.9%. Morocco, meanwhile, has received support from the African Development Bank to shore up its own recovery. Nonetheless, the region’s route to recovery remains uncertain as the Omicron variant has cast a shadow over the global economy and high levels of public debt squeezing the fiscal space available for economic stimulus.
From a political perspective, North Africa has remained relatively stable since the Arab Spring in 2011. However, the pressures of the pandemic and high levels of youth unemployment have led to unrest in Tunisia, this year. President Saied’s consolidation of power through legal and parliamentary reform continues to attract concern as the only democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring makes a rocky start to the 2020s. Analysts will also be watching Libya closely as the country enters its 2021 presidential election and postponed parliamentary elections in 2022.
Join Invest Africa and our panel of experts as we discuss the key political and economic trends to watch in North Africa in 2022.
Will political volatility reduce the ease of doing business during 2022?
How will the region attract FDI during the fiscal year?
What will regional elections hold for the ease of doing business across the region?
Will inflation and increases in public debt undermine north Africa’s projected growth rates?